The Missing Link in Threat Detection: From Identification to Action

Behavioral Threat Assessment

Security intelligence professionals are confronted daily with concerning material: threats, hostile rhetoric, violent ideation. These signals emerge from numerous sources, across a wide variety of platforms including social media, forums, messaging apps, obscure websites.

An OSINT platform is indispensable for detecting threats and identifying persons of interest. It gathers digital breadcrumbs, indicators of violent intent, and reveals patterns that might otherwise remain hidden. But the crucial question remains: once a threat is identified, does your team know what to do next?

The Complexity of Modern Threat Analysis

Security teams must triage a range of potential threats. In this environment, a critical skill is differentiating between noise and genuine risk. A person ranting online about government corruption might be venting frustration. Another individual, using eerily specific language about a planned act of violence, could pose a real danger. The distinction between the two is subtle but vital.

A well-crafted behavioral threat assessment methodology helps analysts make this distinction with confidence. It provides a structured approach to evaluating risk, identifying warning behaviors, and recognizing escalating patterns that indicate a subject may escalate from rhetoric to violent action.

Threat vs. Pose: A Crucial Distinction

One of the most common mistakes in security assessments is focusing too much on whether someone has made a threat, rather than whether they pose a threat. Decades of research show that many attackers do not explicitly announce their intentions before they act. Instead, they exhibit behaviors - subtle but identifiable markers - that indicate a growing risk of violence.

A behavioral threat assessment isn’t about waiting for an individual to cross a red line. It’s about recognizing the patterns leading up to that moment.

Concerning behaviors might include fixation on a particular individual or organization, obsessive grievances, increasingly aggressive rhetoric, or even logistical steps toward an attack, such as acquiring weapons or conducting surveillance on a target.

The Critical Importance of OSINT

Open-source intelligence is an essential component of modern security operations, but it is not a standalone solution. Identifying a concerning online presence is only the beginning. Effective risk mitigation requires a structured evaluation process that considers multiple dimensions:

• Intent: Is the individual merely expressing frustration, or do they exhibit signs of genuine commitment to violence?

• Capability: Does the person have access to weapons, training, or the logistical means to follow through?

• Opportunity: How close is the subject to their potential target, both physically and logistically?

• Behavioral Trajectory: Are they demonstrating escalating patterns of hostility, planning, or preparation?

A sophisticated threat assessment process combines OSINT findings with behavioral analysis to create a comprehensive risk profile.

Recognizing the Warning Behaviors

Certain behaviors serve as indicators that an individual may be escalating toward violence. These warning signs don’t operate in isolation, but collectively contribute to an overall threat profile. Some of the most significant include:

• Pathway behavior: Steps toward violence, such as researching past attacks, acquiring weapons, or making logistical preparations.

• Fixation: An obsessive preoccupation with a person, ideology, or grievance, especially when it leads to an increasingly hostile tone.

• Last-resort language: Statements indicating urgency or a belief that violence is the only remaining option.

• Identity and justification: Viewing oneself as a warrior for a cause, adopting an ‘us vs. them’ mentality, or attempting to rationalize violence as necessary or righteous.

From Identification to Intervention

Recognizing these behaviors is just the first step. The real challenge is deciding what comes next. Does the subject require persistent monitoring? Should law enforcement be alerted? Is immediate intervention necessary?

Signal’s Behavioral Threat Assessment Guide provides a structured methodology to navigate these decisions. Drawing from both operational experience and academic research, the guide presents a framework for assessing threats and determining appropriate responses.

Instead of reacting impulsively to every inflammatory statement online, security teams can apply a methodical approach to distinguish between bluster and bona fide threats. This is the missing piece in many security strategies—the bridge between detection and decisive action.

Elevating Security Intelligence

The landscape of threat analysis is evolving. As the volume and complexity of digital threats increase, so must the methodologies used to assess and respond to them. OSINT platforms like Signal provide the necessary tools to surface threats, but structured behavioral assessments are what turn information into actionable intelligence.

Does your team have the expertise to make the right call? Can they confidently distinguish between a hostile but harmless individual and someone with the intent and capability to act? If not, they risk either overreacting to low-level threats or, more dangerously, overlooking real risks until it’s too late.

With the right methodology, security professionals can move beyond mere detection. They can anticipate, assess, and intervene—turning intelligence into prevention.

Want to learn more? Check out our Signal Behavioral Threat Assessment Guide.

How Monitoring Current Events Like the 2020 US Election Can Increase Organizational Security

There are numerous threats that could evolve to seriously impact an organization, from natural disasters, to acts of terror, to targeted attacks on executives. Currently though, tensions around the US election are high on both ends of the political spectrum. There has been an increase in polarization of political views and even militarization of the public in recent months, and many Signal customers have expressed concern.

For many American’s this is seen as the most important election of their lives so far. Fears of voter fraud and voter suppression are rife, which is reflected by an unprecedented number of early votes being cast with more than 90 million votes already cast a week before the election, more than two-thirds of all the votes cast in 2016.

This, paired with a deadly pandemic and a summer of protests, many of which became violent, and one can see the potential for civil unrest around a contentious presidency. To mitigate this risk organizations need relevant intelligence as events unfold to ensure they take the necessary precautions to protect their employees and assets.

As such, we have created advanced tools to enable Organizations to be alerted as early as possible to issues and current events, such as the Election, where the possible fallout could have an impact on their employees and assets.

Monitoring Election Threats in Real-Time Using Signal OSINT

Using Signal security teams can learn of events as they are happening or even before they happen, allowing effective response plans to be enacted, effectively neutralising potential threats. 

To do this users can create custom searches using Boolean Logic to filter intel from key web sources such as social media, the open web, and the dark web. Intel from these sources often acts as an early indicator alerting Signal customer to potential issues in real-time. The data can also be reviewed by our emotional analysis solution for increased data analysis efficiency.

Signal has real-time SMS and email alerting for high-risk threats so that companies can maximise available response time. Once alerted to potential risks the security team can form a final judgement on the threat level and decide whether action needs to be taken.

Final Words on Threat Monitoring with Signal

Threat monitoring isn’t just for events such as a contentious election. COVID-19, earthquakes, storms and other extreme weather events, and even threats of violence against specific executives, can all affect an organization. Signal OSINT software enables security teams to scan a vast number of surface, deep, and dark web channels and sources to gain real-time data on a broad array of emerging threats. 

Anonymous social media forums like 4chan or dark web forums are often where threat actors go to communicate and organize. And social media is often where you can learn of current events as they unfold. So whether it’s customer data for sale online, or an active shooter situation in-store, security teams armed with OSINT can quickly assess and respond appropriately to mitigate risks and damages.

Only when an organisation has a complete picture that incorporates the variety of potential risks and has invested in specific responses and contingency plans can it adapt as needed to mitigate the impact of extreme events.

6 Ways Signal OSINT is Improving Protection for Executives and VIPs

High profile executives and VIPs are more likely to receive threats of violence, be at the centre of negative online noise, and to be the target for both cyber and physical attacks. This, when paired with their busy schedules (which often involve travel), makes staying ahead of potential threats a particular challenge for their security teams. 

Attackers have a variety of reasons and goals for targeting executives and VIPs. It could be anything ranging from a reaction to company layoffs, to kidnapping for ransom. Whatever the reason though, security teams need to be able to spot the threats, understand the motives, and implement an effective response in a timely fashion.

In this article, we take a look at 6 key ways Signal OSINT is used today by customers to advance protection measures for high profile executives.

How Can Signal OSINT Improve your Executive Security?

Discover private information published online

There are several reasons that an individual might publish private information online. Often, it is in anger or as some form of revenge. The kind of information that has been found published online includes: names, email addresses and logins, physical address, details about an executives families, passport details, medical information, credit card and bank details, and SSN’s.

Having such information leaks opens up an executive to a wide range of potential threats. As a security professional, it is vital to know if and when there is a data breach so that the threat can be neutralized. The longer data is available online the more risk there is. For example, if card details are discovered online the bank can be contacted and the card cancelled.

Read: Detecting and Mitigating the Risks of Data Breaches 

Identify direct threats

Sometimes threat actors are more direct in the way they threaten executives. This could, for example, be a direct threat of violence through an email, instant messaging service or public forum like social media. While the majority of such threats come from so-called “keyboard warriors” there are some which will require further attention and action. 

For example, discussions might be uncovered on the dark web forum with details of a planned attack on an executive. With the prior knowledge of the attack action can be taken to reduce the associated risks.

One way to differentiate between someone that is simply venting their anger on a public forum and someone who genuinely might take action is to look for repetition of negative sentiment.

Emotional analysis

Emotional analysis gives data extra context which allows it to be better understood enabling a more effective and accurate response to the potential risks. 

It also allows you to differentiate between when a negative comment is simply that, a negative comment, or when it needs more serious attention, for example, it’s evolving into a physical threat.

Read: When Does Negative Sentiment Become a Threat? 

Misinformation is spreading about an executive

The spread of disinformation is problematic on a number of levels. For example, throughout COVID-19 misinformation has been spread regarding the virus, it’s root causes and best prevention practices. This has harmed efforts to curtail and control it. Another recent example is the role of misinformation in the 2016 US election. 

There are numerous reasons that individuals and organizations spread misinformation, it could be part of a phishing campaign or an international political assault, for example. Whatever the reason the results are almost always harmful. When an individual spreads misinformation around a CEO or other executive there are real ramifications for brand and reputation which need to be managed.

To combat misinformation organizations need to be equipped with the right tools and understand both what they’re looking for, and the reasons for spreading misinformation.

Disruptive events are planned which could prove a threat to executives.

Events such as protests planned at or near an office or manufacturing location could present logistical problems and delays as well as potentially devolve into riots which would represent a physical threat. Having intelligence on the events and any salient information regarding individuals or groups looking to create trouble will allow you to take appropriate precautionary measures and prevent a threat from escalating.

Travel risks

All travel comes with some inherent risk. However, it is more pronounced for executives who are at increased risk due to the regularity of their travel and high profile.

Additionally, events like extreme weather or terrorist action may make a destination unsafe. As such, having an OSINT solution such as Signal offering an early warning of any particular dangers will enable you to plan alternative routes and otherwise avoid high risk scenarios.

Read: 4 Aspects of Effective Executive Travel Risk Management 

Early warnings with real-time data

Using Signal you can create customized alerts filtered via specific keywords, phrases or even locations. We also have a built-in translation tool so that data can be searched across languages and automatically translated into your default language.

Additionally, you can run alerts through our emotional analysis tool to determine how much of a threat any particular alert is. Finally, get our optional Sapphire bolt-on and utilise our skilled data analysts to further refine your results. 

This approach allows your leave your intelligence gathering on autopilot and not only effectively reduce costs but vastly increase the scope of your monitoring ability and the overall amount of hyper-relevant intelligence at your fingertips. All of this allows you to gather actionable intel in realtime.

Find out more about Executive Protect with Signal…